Modi’s popularity among the poor and RSS groundwork continue to benefit party.
Written by Badri Narayan
The politics of democracy expresses itself in one form or the other through various levels of elections in India. A lot depends on mobilising social communities with promises, arguments, and ideas of society and governance proposed by contesting political parties. They trickle down and slowly politicise various marginal and neglected communities.
The scheduled castes (SC) are a major social group in Indian society, more commonly known as Dalits and forming 16.6% of the country’s population. The community has slowly increased its political value, not merely due to its number but also by various kinds of mobilisations and political assertions. A bulk of the Dalits in India were viewed as a vote bank of the Congress prior to the 1990s. After the emergence of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the 80s, the Dalit vote bank of the Congress started shifting towards the former. This was especially the case in north Indian states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. In southern India, Dalit communities remained with the Congress in impressive numbers but scattered in favour of regional parties across states.
Traditionally, the Dalits were not a voter base of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP tried to make a dent since its inception, but could not get any impressive results until the 90s. However, during Narendra Modi’s leadership, the BJP has achieved much success in mobilising Dalit communities. There are two factors behind this. The first is constant efforts made by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) to evoke Hindutva identity among Dalits. Secondly, Prime Minister Modi raised hopes and drew huge trust value among the marginalised to change their present and reframe their future. Due to these base factors, the BJP started making inroads into the SC votebank in various parts of India. Electoral studies and surveys show that a substantial percentage of Dalits have voted for the BJP in elections since 2014.
This happened due to two reasons. Firstly, the RSS created a rapport through various social services such as opening schools, hospitals, health camps, and cleanliness initiatives. It started organising various Samarsata (harmony) campaigns among Dalits during the 70s under the leadership of then RSS chief Balasaheb Deoras. During the Ram Janmabhoomi movement and even afterwards, the Sangh organised various sociocultural campaigns to activate Hindutva consciousness among them. It began to integrate Dalit icons such as Suhaldev, Bijli Pasi, and Uda Devi along with Hindutva figureheads. The Sangh worked effectively among Dalit communities to provide them symbolic representation in the Hindutva universe and raised pride, aspiration, and desire for sociopolitical mobility, which paved the way for the BJP to expand its influence and connect with them.
Secondly, in this fertile ground, the BJP under the leadership of Modi generated fresh hopes among the marginalised and poor. The BSP, in spite of a very successful innings in Uttar Pradesh, is on the decline. At this juncture, Modi emerged as a new political hope for Dalits. In such a political backdrop, a large number of Dalit votes went towards the BJP. This trend of Dalit voting pattern became clearly visible in the 2019 parliamentary election. The fifth phase of voting in the 2024 parliamentary election is over. Based on observations in various parts of India, one can argue that an impressive number of Dalit votes, especially that of non-Jatavs, seems to go in favour of PM Modi. I would like to explore why Dalits show such a preference.
First, PM Modi has gained huge popularity among the poor, especially Dalits. They believe that he always fulfils his promises. Secondly, all the poor welfare schemes such as free rations, various direct benefit transfers including pensions, and the Ayushman Bharat health insurance card have helped people in villages and slums. These welfare schemes have not only provided relief to them but their accumulated impact is also evolving a capacity in the beneficiaries to aspire for a good life. The evolution of such aspirations is spurring various initiatives and actions among the people that may break their social stagnation and lead them towards progress and development. BSP leaders and sectons of the Dalit population who are better off may criticise the free ration scheme, but it is helping the most marginalised and invisible strata to take steps to stand on their own feet. It is interesting that a large number of marginalised and poor Dalits perceive the government’s social welfare initiatives differently than the better-off sections of the community as well as other marginalised social groups. We find huge admiration for these schemes on the ground. A beneficiary consciousness has emerged among the poorest, which works across caste and communities to mobilise them in favour of the BJP. This has diluted the caste-based identity consciousness among the subalterns and marginalised.
Thirdly, various local factors are also responsible for cultivating among Dalits a bias towards the BJP, but Modi’s image is central to the admiration they have for the party. In conversations, many field labourers in Bihar identified this election as “Modi ka election”. It is, in fact, seen that Modi is more popular and identifiable than the BJP symbol of lotus, especially among the unlettered in India.
If the BSP declines further, it may throw up the following possibilties. One, Dalit votes may get fragmented among political parties such as the BJP, Congress, the BSP and also regional parties like Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janata Dal. This fragmentation may contribute to triumphs of their candidates in various constituencies. Secondly, the Dalits may move en bloc towards one of the two big national political parties—the BJP and Congress. Should that happen, it will have a long-term impact on democracy and election in India.
The author is Director, G B Pant Social Science Institute, Allahabad.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.
Courtesy : TFE
Note: This news is originally published in thefinancialexpress.com and was used solely for non-profit/non-commercial purposes exclusively for Human Rights.
