Opinion: Dalits will not return to BSP now, will Congress-SP make more inroads or is there hope for BJP in UP?

arun Posted On August 27, 2024

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In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Dalit and Mahadalit castes of Uttar Pradesh turned to the Samajwadi Party, the representative of the OBC caste. This wiped out the Bahujan Samaj Party. But when the Supreme Court gave the decision to sub-classify the castes of the Dalit class, new life started returning to Dalit politics. Will sister Mayawati now be able to bring back her vote bank from Akhilesh Yadav?

Edited by Naveen Kumar Pandey

There is a period of confusion about Dalit politics in Uttar Pradesh
In the last Lok Sabha elections, a part of Dalits went to SP
So is the future of sister Mayawati’s BSP bleak?

When the Soviet Empire collapsed after the Cold War, highly skilled people became unemployed. This caused a lot of loss. Russian sports trainers, pilot trainers, engineers and scientists started migrating and within no time, skilled workers of Russia spread in all countries. Now imagine what happened to the Bahujan Samaj Party, the voice of Dalits and the school of social engineering. What happened is quite clear – at least 10 of the 37 MPs who won on Samajwadi Party tickets in the Lok Sabha elections in UP have roots in the BSP, and at least six candidates who lost are former BSP leaders.

Now, the sub-categorisation of castes within the Dalit category threatens to derail Dalit politics in UP. Both the BSP and the SP have rejected it. The BSP wants to re-establish itself as the champion of Dalit unity. The SP-BSP are trying to increase their penetration among both block workers and voters.

Is it too late or can Mayawati’s BSP get back on track? The Akhilesh Yadav-led SP won 37 of the 80 seats in the UP Lok Sabha elections. Earlier in January, the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya was inaugurated. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the host of the consecration ceremony of the idol of Ram Lalla there. How did the SP manage to win the Lok Sabha elections against this backdrop? The answer is a combination of the mobilisation of Mandalists, clever selection of candidates, Rahul Gandhi’s growing credibility among the lower strata of society and the exchange of votes between the SP and the Congress.

As JNU sociologist Vivek Kumar said, “The Congress and Rahul’s promise of social justice and the potential threat to the Constitution from the return of the Modi government created a sense of insecurity among Dalits.” “Dalits were Congress voters for a long time until parties like the BSP emerged,” he said.

But there was a steady exodus of BSP talent to the SP, especially after the 2022 UP state elections. Mayawati had almost surrendered in the last few years. She had challenged the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections along with the SP. It was reminiscent of the slogan that emerged from the post-Ayodhya backward class alliance – ‘Mile Mulayam-Kanshiram, Hawa mein ud gaye Jai Shri Ram’. But the election results did not turn out as expected and Mayawati wasted no time in breaking the alliance. She cited lack of vote transfer from SP to BSP, but many said that in fact opposition leaders were under pressure from central agencies. BSP became inactive. In 2022, the party won just one seat in the 403-seat assembly. This confirms that ‘Behenji’ has been defeated in the electoral arena.

With Ambedkar in their hearts and minds and Kanshi Ram’s book in their hands, the marginalised began to look for new possibilities when they saw BSP’s momentum slow down. Incidentally, the Samajwadi camp, which was defeated twice by the BJP, was facing turmoil in the same period. The BJP had launched its own social engineering, using fiery communal appeals to polarise majority Hindus. On the other hand, there was an ‘anti-Yadav’ mobilisation, which alienated the ‘most backward’ from the alleged OBC solidarity. The irony is that the BJP has managed to win over the upper castes and the most backward classes that were opposed to Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Muslim-Yadav alliance. This move has widened the BJP’s base of support, which was difficult to counter through any caste-religious equation.

In such a situation, the unemployed workers of the BSP and the worried strategists of the SP came together naturally. The migration of BSP workers to the SP also brought with it Dalits, the most backward and Muslims at the grassroots level. BJP insiders admit that its newly built OBC base was shaken in 2022. Sections of major communities moved to the SP, leading to 111 seats against 47 in 2017.

With the disintegration of the BSP, a section of the Dalit voters also came into the BJP’s kitty. In some key areas, some OBCs and some Dalits filled the gaps. This led to the BJP’s victory in 2022. While Akhilesh strengthened the base of Yadavs, Kurmis, Lodhs, MBCs, Muslims and Dalits, the weaknesses became beyond repair. This is what brought the SP back to life. The same pattern worked for the BJP in other states. The BJP has expanded its voter base in many states by bringing in leaders from the Congress.

Take Lalji Verma for example. He moved from SP to BSP during Kanshi Ram’s time, rejoined Akhilesh ahead of the 2022 elections and SP won all five assembly constituencies in BSP’s stronghold Ambedkar Nagar. With Lalji Verma winning on SP ticket, Ambedkar Nagar is no longer a BSP stronghold.

Kanshi Ram’s aide RK Chaudhary, who had broken away from Mayawati and joined SP, won from Mohanlalganj, a reserved seat. He says, “BSP workers are looking for a movement that reflects Kanshi Ram’s values.” Chaudhary says that the irony is that 20 years ago Kanshi Ram had a movement, but it had few supporters. Now when the people he trained have stood up on the strength of the Constitution and democratic values, there is no one to lead.

In that void came Akhilesh’s PDA (backward, Dalit, minority). Chaudhary says, “Kanshi Ram had transformed PDA into ‘Bahujan Samaj’.” This base is today Akhilesh’s PDA block. According to Choudhary, about 40% of BSP cadre, most of them Dalits, voted for the SP even though the SP had made little effort to reach out to them. “Many Kanshi Ram followers like me are in the SP. We will bring more BSP workers to the SP,” he says.

The BSP’s army of workers is a strong force. The workers are district and village-level “sainiks” who are trained to go to the slums every day and perform songs and plays to instill a sense of pride in people and connect them to the Bahujan movement.

Others are also eyeing the BSP’s vote bank. Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad, the newly elected MP from Nagina Lok Sabha seat from where the BSP began its march in western UP, added “Kanshi Ram” to the name of his Azad Samaj Party, trying to woo disheartened BSP supporters.

But Vivek Kumar calls reports of the BSP’s demise rubbish. He argues that this shift in Dalit votes could be temporary. He said, ‘Parties like BSP born out of social movements never die. Their fortunes decline. BSP also faces the same fate, yet it enjoys the loyalty of a large social group.’ Dalit politics is clearly in a state of fluctuation.