Mayawati did not remove nephew to get closer to BJP, UP Dalit voters are switching sides

arun Posted On June 1, 2024

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The shifting loyalties of Dalit and Kurmi voters highlight the complexity of voting behaviour in UP.

Arvind Kumar and Sanjay Kumar

As polling for the 18th Lok Sabha nears its end, a question needs to be answered: Who will benefit from Mayawati’s decision to remove her nephew Akash Anand as the Bahujan Samaj Party’s national coordinator and from the campaign scene? Several political commentators and parties have alleged that her decision will benefit Prime Minister Narendra Modi, thus dubbing the BSP as the ‘B’ team of the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Based on our ground experience and work, we argue that a section of Dalit voters who have defected from the BSP are moving towards the All India Alliance. This shift may benefit opposition parties in other states as well. Hence, the opposition’s allegation that Mayawati’s decision is a tacit understanding with the BJP is incorrect and does not reflect the voting behaviour of Dalits in the state.

Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh

Dalits in UP, especially the Jatav/Chamar, have historically voted heavily for the BSP. However, the 2022 assembly elections saw a decline in support for the BSP across castes to varying extents.

The question now arises: who did such voters support? Based on our previous field insights, we have observed that Dalit voters in western UP, who deserted the BSP, were more likely to vote for the BJP.

However, in other regions of the state, such voters supported the SP. The reason for this could be grassroots, one of which could be the conflict Dalit voters have with Yadavs and Jats, who own land in western UP and Braj.

However, in Awadh and eastern UP, where Thakurs have historically been landholders, Yadavs and Dalits have a shared history of oppression and fighting against feudalism.

This is one of the reasons why the BSP once had several MPs from the Yadav community such as Ramakant Yadav, Umakant Yadav, Mitrasen Yadav and Bhalchandra Yadav. The social alliance between Yadavs and Chamars in Awadh and Purvanchal could be one of the reasons why the SP performed better in these regions during the last assembly elections.

The Akash Anand effect

Mayawati’s nephew has had a positive impact in western UP. The enthusiasm shown by young Dalits in his election rallies can be seen as a sign of these voters returning to the BSP fold. If this is true, we could see a rise in BSP’s vote percentage in western UP compared to the rest of the state.

However, his removal from the post of coordinator has demoralised Dalits and has once again put them at a crossroads in the rest of UP. Despite this fact, they are more likely to vote for the opposition alliance. It also reflects Mayawati’s reluctance towards serious politics, which has not sent a good message among Dalit voters. The frequent change of candidates has led to further disappointment.

Opposition gains

The opposition’s statement that if the BJP comes to power for the third time, it will abolish reservation and amend the Constitution is moving aggressively towards building a strong support base for the India Alliance. The BJP’s slogan- ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ as well as statements by some BJP leaders like Diya Kumar and Lallu Singh have spread like wildfire among the marginalised communities, creating anxiety and fear. In this scenario, Mayawati’s decision is not being viewed positively.

This popular perception is making inroads into the BJP’s newly-formed Dalit base. Hence, disgruntled Dalit voters are moving towards the opposition alliance. Besides, Kurmi voters, who used to support the BSP in many pockets of the state, are also moving towards the opposition alliance.

These changes can certainly increase the vote share of the opposition parties (SP and Congress). But whether it will be enough to win the constituencies is uncertain. If the BJP has any role in the removal of Akash Anand, it may regret it later. However, there is no doubt that this development in the middle of the election is likely to benefit the opposition parties rather than the BJP.

Narrative versus organisational strength

Of late, the opposition parties have gained an edge in building narratives around perceived threats to the Constitution, reservation, unemployment, inflation, caste census and farmers’ issues. However, they do not have the organisational strength of the BJP – which is unmatched and unrivalled.

However, the surprising part of the entire campaign has been the absence of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) workers on the ground till the fifth round of polling. Moreover, BJP national president JP Nadda’s statement on the RSS has further hampered the party’s future prospects. There is also a rumour that the RSS has been kept away for the remaining rounds of polling, which could make the party’s future prospects even more difficult.

Therefore, the final round of polling is also going to see a clash between the opposition’s narrative and the organisational strength of the BJP. The BJP has mobilised its workers for the final round of polling. Mayawati’s decision has created a dynamic political landscape and open space in UP, which the opposition will greatly benefit from. The shifting loyalties of Dalit and Kurmi voters highlight the complexity of voting behaviour. The final round of polling will show the importance of both narrative and organisational strength in achieving electoral success.