Maharashtra Elections 2024: Maha Vikas Aghadi or Mahayuti? Whose boat will the Dalit voters take across in the Maharashtra elections?

Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: In the battlefield of Maharashtra assembly elections, there is a discussion about Maratha-OBC, Dhangar-tribal, Muslim-minority voters, but the Dalit voter is silent. Ramdas Athawale’s Republican Party RPI (A) is part of the Mahayuti i.e. BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) alliance.

Reported by Abhimanyu Shitole | Edited by Sujit Upadhyay

Mumbai: In the battlefield of Maharashtra assembly elections, there is a discussion about Maratha-OBC, Dhangar-tribal, Muslim-minority voters, but the Dalit voter is silent. Ramdas Athawale’s Republican Party RPI (A) is part of the Mahayuti i.e. BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) alliance. But he has no say in this alliance. Ramdas Athawale had demanded 12 seats in writing from Devendra Fadnavis. But considering Athawale as a cow tied to the peg of the post of Union Minister, no importance was given to his demand. Neither Athawale was included in the discussion of seat sharing in the Mahayuti nor was a single seat left for him. The nomination time is ending tomorrow i.e. Tuesday and Dalit workers are boiling. Ramdas Athawale is also expressing his displeasure publicly, but there is no one to listen to him. Why is there so much indifference towards Dalits in the Mahayuti? Especially when in the Lok Sabha elections, Dalits themselves have destroyed the plan of BJP ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar’.

The power and impact of Dalit votes

Let us understand what is the mathematics of Dalit votes in Maharashtra and how its inclination can affect the results. According to the 2011 census, the population of Dalits in Maharashtra was 11.81%. That is, according to rough estimates, after 12 years in 2024, it will increase to approximately 15%. Out of 288 seats in Maharashtra Assembly, 29 seats are reserved for SC. The average number of Dalit voters on each of the 288 seats is around 15000. Apart from this, there are 67 assembly seats where the Dalit population is more than 15%, approximately 18%. According to the 2019 election results, BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) have 21 MLAs out of the 29 reserved seats for SC. Whereas Maha Vikas Aghadi has only 8 MLAs.

The picture has changed after the Lok Sabha elections

The picture has changed in the last Lok Sabha elections. Maha Vikas Aghadi candidates have won the elections on all the 5 Lok Sabha seats reserved for Dalits, Latur, Ramtek, Solapur, Amravati and Shirdi. That is, it is clear that the Dalit vote bank has shifted. Out of these, Shiv Sena UBT won Shirdi and Congress won the remaining four seats. The analysis of Lok Sabha votes shows that out of the 29 assembly seats reserved for SC, Maha Vikas Aghadi got a lead in 21 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. While Mahayuti got a lead in 8 seats. MVA took a lead in 51 of those 88 assembly constituencies, where the number of Dalits is more than 15%. That is, the equation of Dalit votes seems to have changed 360 degrees. This trend of Dalits is also special because other parties like Prakash Ambedkar’s party Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) were also in the fray in the Lok Sabha elections, but they failed to win. Perhaps the reason for this was that Dalits felt that Prakash Ambedkar was giving advantage to BJP, so Dalits did not support him.

Why are Dalits angry?

Even though BJP is propagating that the fake narrative of ‘Constitution is in danger’ and ‘reservation is over’ has misled the Dalits, the real reason is that it is spreading rapidly among Dalits, especially Buddhists, that BJP is dividing Dalits for its political interests. It is working to divide Dalits into Matangs and Buddhists. This has created a danger of their reservation being reduced. Let us tell you that there are more than 59 different castes among Dalits in Maharashtra. Among these, Mahars who are Buddhists or neo-Buddhists have the highest number. Neo-Buddhists (Mahars) are about 40% of the Dalit population. They are the followers of Ambedkarite movement and the focus of their politics is social justice and empowerment.

Danger of Dalit reservation being divided At present, Dalits i.e. Scheduled Castes (SC) get 13 percent reservation in education and jobs. There is a belief among Buddhists that the Matang caste of Dalits has been started being called Hindu Dalits to divide Dalits. The perception among the Matangs is that the Mahars or Buddhists take more advantage of the 13 percent reservation fixed for Dalits. Therefore, the reservation quota should be divided. Buddhist Dalit leaders are against any such idea.

Courtesy: Hindi News