Fourth Phase in BJP Stronghold Presents First Real Test for Akhilesh Alliance

Lucknow: As assembly polls enter its crucial fourth phase in central districts of Uttar Pradesh, all eyes will be on how the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party performs in the 59 seats that will vote on Wednesday, February 23.

In the run-up to the elections, Akhilesh’s efforts appeared to have been devoted to create a broad-based social coalition which goes beyond his support of two specific communities – Yadavs and Muslims.

He stitched together a pre-poll alliance with the Jat-driven Rashtriya Lok Dal in the west, while also partnering with smaller parties like Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, Mahan Dal, and Janwadi Party (Socialist).

The exodus of Other Backward Classes leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya and Dharam Singh Saini from the Bharatiya Janata Party gave him further boost to project SP as an inclusive grouping which is ready to accommodate and represent as many communities of the state as possible. His twin promises of carrying out a OBC caste census and equitable representation in government jobs and positions if voted to power also appeared to be moves in the same direction.

The fourth phase, taking place in areas that are considered to be the BJP’s biggest stronghold, is Akhilesh’s first real test.
His allies are mostly influential in the western and eastern fringes of the state. In the central districts, Yadavs and Muslims are not dominant in number. Thus, the SP is banking solely on his political messaging to non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalit groups, who are the most influential sections of the electorate, apart from ‘upper’ caste groups, most-likely to throw their weight behind the saffron party.

The non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits had mostly switched to the saffron party in 2014, and have remained loyal since then. BJP allies Nishad Party and Apna Dal (Sonelal) command respectable support among Mallahs and Kurmis – both present in sizeable numbers in the belt.

To topple the BJP, SP – in regions that go to polls in the fourth and fifth phases – will have to hold court, or at least draw a respectable figure in the final electoral tally. As part of its political strategy, SP has fielded only four Yadav and five Muslim candidates out of the 59 seats and represented other groups in a majority of constituencies.

Most accounts indicate that the ground is shifting beneath the BJP’s feet, with a large chunk of the electorate expressing their preference for a change of the state government. Dalit Pasi voters, numerically dominant in districts like Sitapur, Hardoi, and Unnao, have been most vocal against the state government. Given that Akhilesh has emerged as the primary challenger to the BJP, his party SP is most-likely to gain from the social churning on the ground.

However, it has a Herculean task at hand. Of the 59 seats, 51 went to the BJP in 2017, its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) getting one. SP could win only four, while the Bahujan Samaj Party had three.

The 59 seats are spread over Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Sitapur, Hardoi, Unnao, Lucknow, Rae Bareli, Banda and Fatehpur districts. In Rae Bareli, both SP and BJP will also have to contend against Congress which has good standing.
The capital contest

Lucknow also votes on Wednesday.

Among the prominent candidates in the fray are the law minister Brajesh Pathak from Lucknow Cantonment, who is facing SP’s two-time corporator Surendra Singh Gandhi. Another stalwart and veteran BJP leader Lalji Tandon’s son, Ashutosh, is looking to win Lucknow East again but is up against a stiff challenge by SP’s Anurag Bhadauria.

Similarly, another keenly-watched contest will be in Sarojini Nagar seat where SP has fielded a prominent Brahmin face, Abhishek Mishra, against Rajeshwar Singh who is new to electoral politics but has garnered a lot of attention as a former ED officer. His name also figured in the list of those who were possible targets of the Israeli spyware Pegasus.

Among the news-making candidates in the fray are also SP’s Pooja Shukla, who was arrested for showing black flags to the chief minister as a student leader. She is contesting from Lucknow North.

Sadaf Jafar, prominent activist in the city and one of the most important organisers of the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act movement in the state, is also contesting as a Congress candidate from Lucknow Central.

Rae Bareli’s seats are also being hotly contested after two sitting Congress MLAs Aditi Singh and muscular leader Rakesh Singh switched over to the BJP. They are now contesting from Rae Bareli city and Harchandpur seats respectively. In most seats here, the electoral battle is triangular, or even four-cornered with BSP’s Thakur Prasad Yadav fighting with all his mettle in Sareni.

Lakhimpur Kheri’s constituencies will also be a focus for all parties. The district witnessed a strong farmers movement against the now-repealed farm laws, and was cast into the limelight after farmers were mowed down by a speeding vehicle allegedly owned by Ashish Mishra, son of junior home minister in the Union government Ajay Mishra ‘Teni’.

Deputy speaker of the UP assembly Nitin Agarwal, who after winning as a SP candidate switched to the BJP, is again looking to retain his seat in Hardoi.

Courtesy: The wire

Note: This news piece was originally published in thewire.in and used purely for non-profit/non-commercial purposes exclusively for Human Rights objectives.