BJP’s seat loss analysis: Dalit perception, angry party workers among key factors

A post-poll analysis by the BJP indicated that the party’s failure to manage the delicate caste equations in the northern states led to a significant shifting of votes towards the Opposition-led INDIA bloc.

Himanshu Mishra

After facing a significant reduction in its tally in the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls, the BJP leaders have started an in-depth analysis of the party’s performance.

According to sources, the leaders have found that the party’s failure to manage the delicate caste equations, lack of coordination between the government and the organisation in the BJP-ruled states, and anger among the local candidates were some of the issues that led to the decrease of the saffron party votes in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Haryana.

Local party workers were angry about being neglected by their state’s government and the decision to field incumbent MPs, the post-poll analysis highlighted.

The poor performance was unpredictable because the BJP is either the majority power in these states or in power as a member of the ruling alliance.

BJP leaders also estimate that not only did the non-Yadav OBC vote bank slip away, but Dalit votes also shifted in favour of the INDIA bloc in the northern states, sources said.

The Opposition’s campaign on the lines that BJP will change the Constitution if it comes to power weighed heavily on the party, and the saffron side’s failure to not counter it effectively also led to the slipping away of the Dalit votes, BJP leaders believe.

The defection of Khatik and Khurmi votes among non-Yadav OBCs dented the ambitious ‘400 paar’ target. The near absence of the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) resulted in the shifting of the Dalit votes towards the Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance in Uttar Pradesh.

The lack of involvement of RSS workers also hurt the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the analysis showed.

In North India, the BJP suffered significant losses in Haryana, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and especially in Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 polls as compared to 2019.

In Uttar Pradesh, the INDIA bloc won 43 seats of the state’s 80 seats and, the BJP managed to secure victory on 33 seats only. In 2019, the BJP had won 62 of the 80 seats, and ally Apna Dal (Soneylal) had bagged two.

In Rajasthan, where the BJP won 24 of the 25 seats in 2019, with the Hanuman Beniwal-led Rashtriya Loktantrik Party winning the Nagaur seat, the saffron side this time only won 10 seats. The Congress, on the other hand, learnt from its mistakes and bagged eight seats. Its three allies — the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the Bharatiya Adivasi Party, and Beniwal’s RLP — have won one seat each.

In Maharashtra also, the results for the ruling Mahayuti alliance — comprising Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar’s NCP and the BJP — were disappointing as it managed to win only 17 seats. On the other hand, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), plagued by splits in two parties, punched above its weight to bag 30 seats.

In Haryana, where the BJP had won all 10 seats in 2019, it lost in five constituencies this time.

WHAT WORKED FOR BJP

The post-poll analysis showed that the four states that saved the BJP from sinking below 200 were Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Odisha, and Karnataka.

In Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, the BJP analysis showed that its grassroots organisation worked strongly. In Karnataka too, despite a Congress government being in power, the BJP performed well there.

The party’s decision to give leadership to the BS Yediyurappa faction also worked in its favour. Trusting Yediyurappa after the assembly election results and forming an alliance with the Janata Dal (Secular) was beneficial for the BJP.

The BJP secured a resounding victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka by clinching 17 out of the 28 seats. Its ally JD(S) also won two seats.

In Odisha, the BJP’s decision not to form an alliance with Naveen Patnaik proved to be correct. The BJP achieved a historic victory in the Lok Sabha polls in the eastern state, securing an unprecedented 20 out of 21 seats, a significant improvement from their previous tally of eight seats in 2019.

Courtesy : India Today

Note: This news is originally published in indiatoday.com and was used solely for non-profit/non-commercial purposes exclusively for Human Rights.