AAP, BJP may dent Congress, Akali Dal’s Dalit, Sikh vote share, predicts exit poll

Several exit polls hint that the BJP will be the second political party after the AAP that is expected to register a sizeable jump in various segments of voters.

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Punjab will largely be influenced by turncoats, multi-cornered contests, swing voters, caste dynamics, and followers of various cults and deras. The BJP, contesting the Lok Sabha elections in Punjab for the first time without any poll alliance, is optimistic about the results.

Irrespective of whether the BJP will win more seats or retain its previously won two seats, what is evident is that the party is likely to increase its vote share in the state.

Arguably, understanding the caste dynamics of Punjab is not easy. The voters in Punjab are divided into various castes and communities and belong to various faiths. A sizeable 57% are Sikhs, which includes Dalits. Hindus form 38.15% of the electorate, but they are also not homogeneous. Many Hindus profess Sikhism and Christianity. There are a total of 33% Dalit voters divided into 39 sub-castes, who also belong to various faiths.

While the Dalits in Punjab are divided among communities like the Sikh SCs, Mazhabi Sikhs, and Hindu SCs, other major players include Sikh/Hindu OBCs, Sikh General, and Jat Sikhs.

Psephologists opine that none of the political parties so far have been able to polarise any community of voters. Akali Dal could not polarise Sikhs, Hindus, and the Dalits. However, political analysts say that the BJP’s efforts to navigate through Punjab’s complex caste dynamics could pull more votes this time.

India Today-Axis My India exit poll, along with estimates from various other exit polls, hints that BJP will be the second political party after the ruling Aam Aadmi Party that is expected to register a sizeable jump in various segments of voters.

Results in Punjab can surprise everyone: Exit poll

The exit poll predicts that both the AAP and BJP are expected to garner more Sikh SC, Mazhabi Sikh, Hindu SC, Sikh/Hindu OBC, Sikh General, and Jat Sikh votes.

As far as the Sikh SC voters are concerned, AAP is expected to register a 14% rise, followed by the BJP, which is expected to get an additional 10% of the Sikh Dalit vote share. Congress and Akali Dal are expected to lose 4% and 9% of the Dalit Sikh vote share, respectively.

The BJP also tried to woo the Mazhabi Sikh community during the election campaign when their entry to the villages was blocked by the farmer unions. This can also reflect in the results.

The exit poll hints that BJP will attract at least 13% of the Mazhabi Sikh votes compared to the AAP, which is expected to add 11% more Mazhabi Sikh voters. The Mazhabi Sikh vote share of Akali Dal and Congress is expected to decline by 3% and 9%, respectively.

Despite showing a decline in vote share, Akali Dal and Congress will still hold 24% each of the Mazhabi Sikh vote share.

The BJP, due to the construction of the Ram temple and its renewed approach towards the Dalit and Hindu community, is expected to garner 20% of the Hindu SC votes.

The AAP is expected to get an increased 9% vote share of this community.

The Congress and Akali Dal’s Hindu SC vote share is expected to decline by 7% and 12%, respectively.

What has left political analysts baffled are the estimates by the exit poll that the BJP will increase its Sikh OBC, Sikh General, and Sikh Jat vote share. The saffron party is expected to increase its Sikh OBC, Hindu OBC, Sikh General, and Jat Sikh vote share by 12%, 20%, 13%, and 10%, respectively.

Similarly, the ruling AAP will garner 9%, 13%, 8%, and 11% additional Sikh OBC, Hindu OBC, Sikh General, and Jat Sikh vote share.

One wonders why the Shiromani Akali Dal and Congress have shown a sharp decline in their Sikh OBC, Hindu OBC, Sikh General, and Jat vote share. According to the exit poll, the Shiromani Akali Dal may show a decline in its Sikh OBC, Hindu OBC, Sikh General, and Jat Sikh vote share by an estimated 5%, 13%, 4%, and 1%, respectively.

The Congress, which won eight Lok Sabha seats in 2019, is also expected to lose its vote share. The exit poll has estimated that the Congress can lose 8% of the Sikh OBC, 9% of the Hindu OBC, 7% of the Sikh General, and 10% of the Jat vote share.

How BJP can benefit from the farmer union protests

The farmer protests have affected industrial and general business both in Punjab and Haryana, leaving the industrialists and local traders fuming.

In Barnala, the local traders recently clashed with the farmer union leaders. The blockade of the Shambhu border has increased the freight charges as the finished goods and raw materials are not reaching in time.

The BJP is expected to get a sizeable vote share of the businessman Hindu community this time. The construction of the Lord Rama temple in Ayodhya is another factor that can get more votes for the BJP in Hindu-dominated towns and cities. The migrants from Uttar Pradesh can also contribute to the BJP’s vote share.

BJP expected to tilt Hindu voters in its favour

Hindus constitute 38.5% of Punjab’s electorate and are the biggest chunk of swing voters. The Hindu swing votes in Punjab are estimated to be up to 15%. A similar percentage of voters in Punjab, including the hardliners, neither vote for the ruling party nor the opposition. This community has always been in favor of a third force.

Dalits influence 45 out of the total 117 assembly constituencies.

However, the chairperson of the Institute for Development and Communication (IDC), Professor Pramod Kumar, says that despite having a sizeable Hindu population, the Hindus never vote for candidates of a particular religion. Punjab does not vote for any specific religion. Had the people voted for religion, the pro-Sikh religion parties like Akali Dal might not have struggled for power.

Courtesy : India Today

Note: This news is originally published in indiatoday.com and was used solely for non-profit/non-commercial purposes exclusively for Human Rights.