The fight for Dalit votes has intensified with the emergence of new alliances in Haryana, know what are the equations being formed?
In the Haryana assembly elections, the Congress now faces the challenge of preventing a division in the Dalit vote bank, the possibility of which has increased with new political alliances.
Rajan Chaudhary
Haryana: The fight for Dalit votes in the state is getting tougher, which is a big challenge for the Congress, which had won a majority of Dalits in the recent Lok Sabha elections. The Congress now faces the challenge of preventing a division in the Dalit vote bank in the assembly elections, the possibility of which has increased with new political alliances.
Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has formed an alliance with Abhay Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), while Chandrashekhar Azad’s Bhim Army has joined hands with Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janata Party (JJP). Both alliances are looking to make a dent in the important Dalit voters of the state.
Importance of Dalit Voters in Haryana
According to the 2011 census, Dalits constitute 20.2% of Haryana’s population, with 17 assembly seats reserved for Scheduled Caste (SC) candidates. In rural areas, the SC population is higher at 22.5%, while in urban areas it is 15.8%. Districts such as Fatehabad (30.2%), Sirsa (29.9%), and Ambala (26.3%) have the highest number of Dalits, while Mewat (6.9%), Faridabad (12.4%), and Gurugram (13.1%) have the lowest.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, there was a significant shift as Dalit voters moved away from the BJP and towards the Congress. Nearly 68% of Dalit voters supported the India Block (Congress-AAP), marking a surge of over 40%.
In contrast, the BJP saw a sharp decline, with only 24% of Dalit votes – a drop of 34%. This shift contributed to the BJP losing five of the 10 parliamentary seats, while the Congress won both SC-reserved seats, Ambala and Sirsa. However, this dominance is now under threat from the BSP and Bhim Army, who are increasingly targeting the Dalit vote bank.
Possible impact of BSP and Bhim Army on Congress
Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari points out that in the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP won five of the 17 reserved seats, the Congress seven and the JJP four. The vote shares were also divided similarly, with the BJP getting 33%, the Congress 30%, the JJP 22%, the BSP 3% and the INLD just 1%.
Tiwari says the BSP’s influence has waned in recent years, although it still played a spoilsport in 18 seats during the 2019 elections, where its vote count was higher than the margin of victory. The BSP adversely affected the prospects of the Congress in seven seats, the BJP in five, the JJP in two and other parties in four.
The entry of Chandrashekhar Azad’s Bhim Army has further complicated the equations. Despite the Congress gaining the most from Dalit support in 2024, both Mayawati and Azad could garner enough votes to hamper the party’s prospects as the election is expected to be a closely contested one. In particular, the JJP-Bhim Army alliance could attract young Dalit voters, while the BSP-INLD partnership could erode the Congress’ traditional vote base.
Role of the Jatav community
The Jatav community, which constitutes nearly half of Haryana’s Dalit population, plays a key role in the state’s politics. The Jatavs represent more than 10% of the population in 49 assembly seats, including 11 in Hisar, nine each in Ambala and Rohtak, eight in Gurugram, seven in Faridabad and five in Karnal.
In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP won 21 of these seats, the Congress 15 and the JJP 8. However, in the 2024 general elections, the Congress-AAP alliance secured 68% of the Dalit votes, leaving it far ahead of its rivals. Still, with the emergence of the JJP-Bheem Army and the BSP-INLD alliance, the battle for Dalit votes is set to be a major challenge for the Congress in the upcoming elections.
Courtesy : Hindi News