After all, why do Dalits and Muslims trust the ‘India’ alliance more than the BSP?

The question is why Muslim voters are not supporting BSP? If they have doubts about the upper caste candidates that they should go with the BJP, then the religious candidates could still be supported. But this did not happen. Syed Zaigham Murtaza is telling

Syed Zaigham Murtaza, (Editing: Rajan/Nawal/Anil)

After the completion of two phases of Lok Sabha elections-2024, two things can be said with full confidence. One – Muslim candidates of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) are not getting the expected support among their community. Second – Wherever the BSP candidate is weak, voters from non-Jatav Dalits and extremely backward castes are looking for another option. Both these things are creating a worrying situation for Mayawati and her party.

Voting has taken place on sixteen seats in Uttar Pradesh so far. There are at least seven seats where the Muslim and Dalit alliance is considered almost unbeatable in terms of numbers. Among these, seats like Saharanpur, Meerut, Bijnor, Nagina, Amroha, Moradabad, and Rampur etc. are such, where if Muslim and Bahujan voters come together then they can win by a huge margin without much difficulty. In Pilibhit, Bulandshahr, Ghaziabad, Aligarh and Gautam Buddha Nagar, the equation tilts in favor of whichever candidate these two big groups of voters turn to.

Perhaps this is the reason why BSP chief Mayawati fielded Muslim candidates from Saharanpur, Amroha, Moradabad, Rampur and Pilibhit. Although BSP had earlier given ticket to the Muslim candidate from Aligarh, but just before the nomination, the candidate suffered a heart attack. Due to illness the candidate had to be changed there. Bulandshahr and Nagina are safe seats. Here BSP hoped that Muslim voters would support the party. But this did not happen. In view of the trends seen during voting, it can be said that Muslims were more inclined in favor of India Alliance candidate in Bulandshahr and Chandrashekhar Azad in Nagina.

Similarly, BSP gave tickets to Jat candidates from Bijnor, Rajput candidates from Ghaziabad and Gautam Buddha Nagar, Tyagi candidates from Meerut, Brahmin candidates from Aligarh and Gurjar candidates from Baghpat. If the voters of Muslims and non-Jatav Dalits and extremely backward castes had mobilized in favor of these candidates, then perhaps BSP would have been successful in regaining its lost glory.

Mayawati and a view of the polling booth in Nagina Lok Sabha constituency of Uttar Pradesh.

But the situation shows that despite all the equations being in its favour, the party has not been able to capitalize on the circumstances. There are many reasons for this. Firstly, the minority voters are not able to trust the BSP, secondly, apart from the minorities, a group of Dalit-OBC voters also believe that the India alliance is a better option to remove the BJP from power at the Centre.

Before the start of the elections, there were discussions that Mayawati would become a part of the India alliance after the implementation of the code of conduct. Although these discussions later proved to be rumors, it is also true that Congress tried to persuade the BSP chief till the last moment. Congress leaders quietly admit that the priority of many Congress leaders including Sonia Gandhi for alliance was not Samajwadi Party but BSP. Congressmen believed that their voters can vote for BSP but it is almost impossible to convince the upper caste and urban middle class voters, who are considered the core voters of Congress, in favor of Samajwadi Party.

But Mayawati finally decided to contest the elections alone. The reason for this, political analysts believe, is that Lok Sabha elections are not Mayawati’s priority. His eyes are on the assembly elections to be held in Uttar Pradesh in 2027. Keeping this in view, he has distributed tickets and decided to contest the elections alone. Secondly, BSP did not want to reduce its vote share by contesting elections on fewer seats and this would have a negative impact on the party’s national status. Obviously, the more seats BSP contests, the higher will be its share in the total votes.

But Mayawati’s Muslim-Dalit alliance does not seem to be successful once again. However, there is resentment among minority voters towards Samajwadi Party and Congress due to fielding non-Muslim candidates on Muslim dominated seats. Despite this, in the seats where elections have been held so far, Muslims have given preference to non-Muslim candidates of Congress and Samajwadi Party instead of Muslim candidates of BSP.

In Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Meerut, Baghpat, Bijnor, Amroha, Rampur, Moradabad, Bulandshahr, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Aligarh, Mathura and Pilibhit, Muslim voters have been seen mobilizing in favor of the alliance candidates. In Nagina, the inclination of Muslims was in favor of Azad Samaj Party leader Chandrashekhar Azad ‘Ravana’. Obviously, this trend is sure to be visible in the results, so it is not only a cause of trouble for Mayawati, but is also not good for the future of BSP.

The question is why Muslim voters are not supporting BSP? If they have doubts about the upper caste candidates that they should go with the BJP, then the religious candidates could still be supported. But this did not happen. According to Bijnor resident Asad Ali, “Muslims are assuming that only Rahul Gandhi is the challenge before BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. Their vote is neither going to the Samajwadi Party, nor to the Congress, nor to the candidate, but this support is for Rahul Gandhi who has been standing firm in front of the BJP for a long time.”

Similarly, Shahid, a resident of Meerut, believes that “people will not vote in favor of BSP just by giving tickets. When Muslims or Dalits are in trouble, Mayawati is not visible far and wide. Even in elections, they field candidates to garner votes, not to win.”

Mohammad Ali of Amroha complains that “If Mayawati had been serious, she would have given tickets to strong and local candidates. Bringing in rich people from other districts and fielding them has only two meanings. Firstly, to ensure the defeat of the Muslim candidate of the alliance by cutting his votes, secondly to raise funds for his party.”

So have Muslims completely turned their backs on Mayawati? Maybe not completely yet. According to Hussain Ali, a resident of Bulandshahr, “The mentality of voters is different in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Muslim voters here believe that India alliance is the only option. In this election, if Mayawati had joined the India alliance before Akhilesh Yadav or if she had been in the alliance and the Samajwadi Party had been contesting the elections alone, then believe me, the condition of SP would have been worse than that of BSP.

Not only Muslims, at some places people from non-Jatav Dalits and extremely backward castes are probably voting with this assumption. In Meerut Lok Sabha seat, where Samajwadi Party candidate Sunita Verma is from Jatav community and BSP has fielded Devvrat Kumar Tyagi as its candidate, there were reports from many places of Dalit voters voting in favor of SP. Similarly, in Bulandshahr, Ghaziabad and Amroha, voters from non-Jatav Dalits and extremely backward castes, though in small numbers, voted in favor of the Congress candidate. In Nagina, a large part of Dalit votes were seen going towards Chandrashekhar Azad. In Kairana, Baghpat, and Moradabad, Samajwadi Party candidates have gained share among voters from non-Jatav Dalits and extremely backward castes. At some places, BJP is also claiming that the voters of these sections have come in its favor.

If these claims are true then BSP will have to change its strategy before the next assembly elections. It is a good thing for the party that BSP has a young leadership in the form of Akash Anand, who is educated and understands the issues. But BSP will have to get rid of its negative image. In this election, BSP seems to be posing a serious challenge on some seats. BSP will have to go ahead and prove that it does not contest elections merely to garner votes or defeat Samajwadi Party, but its own challenge is to gain power. If BSP is unable to do this, then not only the minorities but also the voters of Jatav and non-Jatav Dalits and extremely backward castes will be dispersed and new options will emerge.

Courtesy: Hindi News